Modelling climate scenarios for transition mining

Post Date: 22 July 2025
Read Time: 3 minutes

While there is a lot of uncertainty around the future climate, we can be ‘virtually certain’ that adverse impacts from climate change will continue to intensify if we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Mining operations face highly localised climate risks. Understanding how these risks vary from site to site is critical for designing resilient infrastructure, managing operational disruptions, and safeguarding workforces. Key exposure risks may include extreme weather events, changing precipitation patterns, extreme temperatures, drought, bushfire, and many others.

Key tips

Climate Scenario Analysis is now mandatory from Year 1 of reporting under Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards. We have prepared some key tips below to help mining companies make sure you get the most out of your Climate Scenario Analysis.

Be cautious of historical data. Key aspects of mine design are often based on historical data, which may not reflect the current or future reality. Ensuring long term assets and infrastructure utilise climate data that is appropriate for the full life of mine, not just based on historical data.
Utilise location-specific climate data. Future projections vary significantly based on the scenarios assessed and the specific locations – it is not good enough to look at regional or country level data as a proxy.
Consider a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Assessment of a “worse case” scenario is important to ensure worker safety and longevity of operations as extreme events become more severe and more frequent.
Scenario analysis can be a useful tool at all stages of mine-life. Climate scenario analysis is useful not only in the planning and operations of mines, but also closure and rehab could be impacted by changing climate conditions – planning for this upfront and adjusting long term monitoring to account for this is key.
Climate data can be used to consider operational Health & Safety. Revisiting operating policies, worker health and safety, and during re-design, ensuring changes reflect the current, and future environment.

Practical application for mining operations

Now we can take a closer look at practical implications from some of the many climate variables that may impact mine operations and planning.

Extreme Precipitation

All three scenarios (orderly, disorderly and hot house) show an increasing trend in extreme precipitation. An assessment of a key mining location in Western Australia showed potential for up to a 180% increase in the 1-in-100 year 24-hour extreme rainfall*. Infrastructure planning and adaptations to cope with these potential future extreme precipitation levels may include:

Tailings dam design.
Creek diversion plans.
Road drainage design.
Erosion and sediment control plans.
Site design criteria.

*by 2100 based on the 95th percentile in a Hothouse scenario.

Maximum Temperatures

All three scenarios modelled also show an increase in maximum temperature days above 40°C. Modelling of another key mining location showed these maximum temperature days could increase from an average of 20 days per year in the short term to 138 days by 2100*. Ensuring operations, including infrastructure, equipment, and personnel are prepared for future heat extremes may consider:

Outdoor electrical design.
Communication design.
Instrumentation equipment.
Operating temperature for infrastructure.
Health and safety plans.

Want to learn more?

For more information about ASRS and how we can support, please view our factsheet or watch the webinar from our 2025 ASRS series: An Introduction to Climate Scenario Analysis.

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